Top regional climate research bodies have issued an urgent call for Caribbean nations to ramp up preparations for a prolonged period of deepening drought and record-breaking extreme heat, driven by a rapidly intensifying El Niño event forecast to sustain dry conditions across most of the region well into 2027.
In a joint announcement released Tuesday, scientists from the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) outlined that potentially historic high temperatures could arrive as early as the March-to-May window of 2027. The warning lands as the region enters the August–October peak of the annual Caribbean Heat Season, with unusual dryness already impacting multiple areas months ahead of the official climatological Dry Season that kicks off each November.
Cedric Van Meerbeeck, a senior climatologist at CIMH, explained that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean strengthened rapidly from weak to moderate intensity between May and July 2026, with current projections indicating a shift to very strong strength between October and December this year. The climate phenomenon is overwhelmingly likely to remain active through the peak of the Caribbean Dry Season in March 2027.
Historically, El Niño events have been tied to severe regional droughts, including the major dry spells that struck the Caribbean in 2009–2010 and 2014–2016. Beyond water scarcity, the phenomenon also raises the risk of extreme humid heat events, uncontrolled wildfires, and marine heatwaves that trigger destructive coral bleaching across the region’s fragile reef ecosystems.
For areas already grappling with drought, particularly across the Eastern Caribbean, water resource recovery will likely be far slower than normal even during the traditional September–November Wet Season peak. Long-range forecasts project below-average rainfall stretching from the Guianas through the Lesser Antilles and into the Greater Antilles through at least October 2026, paired with a sharp uptick in the number of consecutive hot-spell days.
The combined impact of reduced precipitation and higher evaporation rates is expected to push most of the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, ABC Islands, sections of the Greater Antilles (including Jamaica and Hispaniola), and parts of The Bahamas into full drought by October or November 2026. These dry conditions are projected to persist into early 2027, expanding across a larger swath of the Caribbean and worsening risks of accumulated water deficits and devastating wildfires.
“The risks that our science signaled earlier this year are now beginning to materialize,” noted Michael Taylor, Co-Director of UWI CSGM. “We are seeing an emerging climate disaster whose impacts combine heat, drought, and marine extremes. Unlike a hurricane, the impacts will continue to build over months. However, that should not lessen the urgency or scale of our preparations.” Taylor emphasized that proactive actions taken in the coming weeks will directly shape the range of response options available to governments as conditions deteriorate.
The two organizations warn that the combination of low rainfall and elevated temperatures will ripple across multiple critical sectors of Caribbean economies. Agricultural output and food security are expected to take a major hit, particularly for smallholder farmers who rely entirely on rainfall for their crops. Public health risks will also grow, driven by poor water quality and limited access to safe water, increased transmission of vector-borne diseases, and a surge in heat-related illnesses.
Water and energy infrastructure will face heightened strain as demand for space cooling rises, while the region’s key tourism sector will see increased pressure to meet higher demand for both air conditioning and freshwater supplies. If El Niño disrupts local food production and international supply chains that Caribbean nations depend on, the impacts could also push up regional cost of living. Researchers pointed to recent drought-related disruptions at the Panama Canal as a clear example of how severe dry conditions can block key trade routes and slow the movement of goods into the region.
While El Niño is typically linked to a less active Atlantic hurricane season, Van Meerbeeck urged stakeholders against complacency. CIMH’s August 2026 outlook confirms strong evidence that the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season will produce fewer named storms than an average year, following a relatively calm start to the season. Even so, Van Meerbeeck stressed that a single major hurricane or intense extreme rainfall event could still cause catastrophic loss of life and widespread damage across vulnerable island nations.
David Farrell, Principal of CIMH, called on national governments and other key decision-makers to act immediately on the available climate data. “Proactive measures are vital for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on climate-sensitive sectors, communities, and national economies,” he said. Both the general public and decision-makers are encouraged to follow regular monthly updates from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) on rainfall, drought, heat and other evolving climate conditions as the region approaches the 2026–2027 Dry Season.
