Antigua and Barbuda is facing heightened drought concerns as the Meteorological Service forecasts drier-than-normal conditions for October, with a short-term drought warning already in effect. Rainfall for the month is projected to remain below or near average, with a 75% likelihood of total accumulation around 120 millimeters (4.72 inches). Specifically, there is a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall, a 35% probability of near-normal levels, and only a 25% possibility of above-normal precipitation. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer, particularly at night, with the mean daily temperature for October estimated at 27.7°C (81.9°F). Daytime highs are anticipated to average 30.7°C (87.3°F), while nighttime lows are predicted to hover near 24.9°C (76.8°F). Looking ahead, the October–December period carries a 70% chance of below to near-normal rainfall, with conditions expected to improve from January to March 2026, shifting to near or above normal levels. Drought monitoring reveals that Antigua has experienced moderate to extreme dryness over the past three months, particularly in the northeast. The Meteorological Service warns that short-term drought is likely to persist through December, though long-term drought is not currently a concern. The situation is further complicated by a La Niña Watch, with a 71% probability of La Niña developing between October and December. This climate phenomenon could exacerbate drought conditions if rainfall deficits continue. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service, in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, is closely monitoring the situation, particularly in Barbuda, where limited rainfall data complicates the assessment of drought impacts.
Antigua and Barbuda Faces Drought Concerns as Drier-Than-Normal Conditions Expected in October
