The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has issued a critical update on tropical disturbance AL95, which is currently positioned over the eastern tropical North Atlantic Ocean. As of 8:30 p.m. ECT on Sunday, October 5, 2025, the system is under close surveillance due to its high potential to develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. AL95 is moving westward at approximately 22 mph and is situated about 2,040 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are currently near 35 mph, with higher gusts reported. The probability of formation within the next two days stands at 50 percent, increasing to 70 percent over the next seven days. While it remains uncertain whether AL95 will directly impact the region, meteorological models, including the reliable European model, suggest that the system could strengthen into a hurricane and pass near or over the northeast Caribbean by Thursday or Friday. Residents of the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands are advised to monitor the situation closely and prepare for potential impacts. Although no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings are currently in effect, these could be issued within the next 48 hours. The next update is scheduled for 2 p.m. ECT on Monday, October 6, 2025, or sooner if necessary. Forecaster Dale Destin emphasized the importance of vigilance during the ongoing hurricane season.
Information Statement from Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service on Approaching Weather System
