Three of the world’s most influential multilateral institutions — the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and International Energy Agency (IEA) — have issued an urgent joint alert: unless oil shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations, the Northern Hemisphere’s peak summer driving season will face escalating threats to global fuel security.
In their statement released Friday from Washington, the agency chiefs laid out the unfolding crisis: global oil stockpiles are already being drained at an unprecedented rate to offset the massive supply cut triggered by the conflict-driven blockage of the strait, a chokepoint that normally carries 20% of the world’s total energy trade. The disruption stems from the ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, which has plunged the broader Middle East into open conflict. In response to the attacks, Tehran has taken retaliatory measures against US regional allies and effectively halted traffic through the key waterway.
The institutions warned that if normal shipping flows are not restored in the coming weeks, the continued rapid drawdown of inventories ahead of the summer peak demand period will amplify risks not just for fuel access, but for global market stability and the overall economic resilience of nations worldwide.
This is not the first coordinated response from the three bodies. Back in April, they announced the formation of a dedicated working group to align their institutional responses to the crisis, with a specific focus on supporting vulnerable developing economies that are most exposed to energy and commodity market shocks. In Friday’s statement, the leaders re-emphasized a critical inequity of the conflict: the sharp spike in energy and fertilizer prices triggered by the disruption is hitting low-income nations far harder than wealthy economies.
“Higher fertilizer prices are of particular concern as many countries enter the planting season,” the statement noted, linking energy market disruption directly to growing global food security risks. Fertilizer production relies heavily on natural gas and energy inputs, so supply blockages in the Gulf have sent fertilizer costs soaring, leaving import-dependent nations facing major gaps in agricultural inputs ahead of key growing cycles.
The macroeconomic fallout of the conflict has already forced global growth projections lower. During this year’s IMF Spring Meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva confirmed that the organization had cut its global growth forecast in response to the conflict’s spillover effects. She also projected that vulnerable economies would require between $20 billion and $50 billion in targeted financial support to offset the economic damage from the crisis.
This week, that need for support became tangible: the IMF announced that Bangladesh, a South Asian nation heavily dependent on Gulf energy imports, has formally requested a financial assistance package, and teams from the Fund are currently in active negotiations to design a tailored support program for the country.
The ripple effects of the Strait of Hormuz disruption extend far beyond the Middle East, hitting nations across South and Southeast Asia in particular — most of which rely almost entirely on imported oil and gas from Gulf producers. Beyond energy, fertilizer supply chains have been shattered, leaving import-dependent countries facing acute food security challenges that threaten to deepen poverty and instability in already vulnerable regions.