BRIDGETOWN, Barbados — Regional climate scientists are sounding the alarm, calling on Caribbean governments, private sector actors, agricultural producers, and local communities to put proactive preparedness measures in place ahead of a developing El Niño event forecast to bring prolonged high heat and severe dry conditions across the Caribbean between 2026 and 2027.
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, forms every two to seven years when surface ocean temperatures rise across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This warming weakens the normally persistent easterly trade winds, allowing warm ocean water to shift eastward across the Pacific, a shift that ripples through global weather systems and triggers far-reaching environmental disruption.
Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, a climatologist at the Barbados-headquartered Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), explains that this upcoming event is projected to bring extended stretches of below-average rainfall combined with dangerously humid high temperatures. These conditions will strain regional water supplies, disrupt agricultural production, raise the risk of widespread heat stress, and exacerbate dry conditions across the region.
Without comprehensive advance planning, CIMH warns that the cascading, overlapping hazards triggered by El Niño will cause severe socio-economic damage across the Caribbean. Historically, El Niño events have been tied to catastrophic regional droughts, including the major dry spells of 2009–2010 and 2014–2016. The climate pattern also amplifies risks of extreme heat events, out-of-control wildfires, and marine heatwaves that drive mass coral bleaching.
These overlapping, destructive impacts were already seen during the record-breaking hot years of 2010, 2023, and 2024. Regions already facing ongoing drought, particularly across the Eastern Caribbean, could see extremely slow recovery of groundwater and surface water reserves during the upcoming wet season, which is set to begin as early as May 2026.
While El Niño is historically associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, Dr. Van Meerbeeck stressed that hurricane and storm risk cannot be dismissed: even a single powerful storm or intense rainfall event can cause catastrophic damage, as seen when Hurricane Andrew battered the Bahamas in 1992 and Tropical Storm Erika devastated Dominica in 2015.
Professor Michael Taylor, co-director of the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM), noted that current forecasts point to the emergence of a new multi-hazard climate regime, where extreme heat, drought, and marine environmental damage occur simultaneously and amplify one another.
“Our research has long identified these compound extreme events as a major threat to lives and livelihoods across the Caribbean,” Taylor said. “With advance warning of this looming overlapping threat, preparedness is not optional—it requires coordinated, cross-sector action and a unified regional approach.”
Both CIMH and UWI CSGM confirm that this emerging climate pattern reflects a broader shift toward more complex, interconnected climate risks that threaten the Caribbean’s most critical sectors, including agriculture, water management, energy, and public health.
Reduced rainfall paired with elevated temperatures will likely drive widespread agricultural losses, undermining regional food security and threatening the livelihoods of rural communities. Public health risks will also rise, with impacts on drinking water quality, increased transmission of vector-borne diseases, and a spike in heat-related illnesses. Water and energy infrastructure will come under growing strain, as demand for cooling rises—particularly in nations that depend on hydroelectric power or energy production cooled by freshwater.
Broader economic disruptions will also hit key regional industries, including tourism, fisheries, and maritime shipping. Because the Caribbean relies heavily on imported goods, global supply chain disruptions linked to El Niño will impact trade, logistics, and access to essential goods and services. Governments have been urged to proactively assess risks to supply chains, transportation networks, and critical trade routes.
For example, recent drought events have already disrupted operations at the Panama Canal, a key transit hub for goods bound for the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast ports. These disruptions directly harm regional food security and drive up the cost of living across Caribbean nations.
El Niño forecast accuracy typically improves significantly starting in May, so Dr. Van Meerbeeck is urging all stakeholders to monitor evolving forecasts and impacts closely, adding that regional climate teams will continue tracking conditions and releasing timely public updates. He encourages decision-makers and the general public to watch for outcomes from the next Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), hosted by CIMH and scheduled for the week of May 24.
At the forum, regional climate experts and staff from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will collaborate with national, regional, and international stakeholders from climate-sensitive sectors to deliver targeted guidance ahead of the upcoming wet season and Atlantic hurricane season.
CIMH Principal Dr. David Farrell emphasized that early awareness and proactive preparedness are critical, noting that timely, actionable climate information is foundational to effective decision-making across the region.
“Proactive measures are essential to reduce the impact of extreme weather on climate-sensitive sectors, vulnerable communities, and national economies,” Farrell said, reinforcing CIMH’s long-term commitment to strengthening regional climate resilience. He added that the institute has strategically expanded its services to place greater focus on water resources, marine ecosystems, earth observation, and climate forecasting, to support the development of more effective early warning systems across the Caribbean.
In recent years, CIMH has dedicated substantial resources to studying how climate hazards like El Niño generate cascading, cross-sector impacts that lead to widespread socio-economic harm across the region. This research informs the design of risk-informed climate adaptation programs, which are core to building Caribbean resilience to long-term climate change and growing climate variability.
Farrell concluded that strengthening early warning systems and expanding public access to clear, actionable climate information remains the top priority for boosting regional preparedness, and thanked regional governments and international development partners for their ongoing support of CIMH’s work to improve early warning infrastructure across the Caribbean.