Why oil prices are soaring despite record reserve release

LONDON, United States (AFP) — In an unprecedented move, major global economies have coordinated the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in history, yet the action has proven insufficient to stabilize turbulent oil markets. Despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of a 400-million-barrel drawdown on Wednesday, crude prices surged past $100 per barrel on Thursday as fresh Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and fears of prolonged conflict continued to roil markets.

The coordinated effort, designed to mitigate the impact of Middle East hostilities on energy supplies, sees the United States contributing 172 million barrels—approximately 40% of its current reserves—to be released gradually over three months. However, analysts immediately questioned the adequacy of this response given the scale of production disruptions emanating from the Persian Gulf region.

According to ING bank commodities strategists, the reserve release falls ‘far short of the supply losses we are seeing from the Persian Gulf.’ Current estimates indicate global crude production has declined by at least 8 million barrels daily, with an additional 2 million barrels of petroleum products offline.

The situation has been exacerbated by a new wave of Iranian retaliatory strikes targeting critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region. Bahrain reported attacks on fuel tanks in Muharraq, while drones struck storage facilities at Oman’s Salalah port. Saudi Arabia confirmed intercepting drones targeting its Shaybah oil field. These attacks have effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway that normally facilitates approximately one-fifth of global crude shipments.

Market anxiety is further compounded by the prospect of an extended conflict. While U.S. officials have suggested a potential near-term resolution, Iran has warned of a protracted engagement that could ‘destroy’ the world economy. The IEA has characterized the situation as ‘creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,’ with no clear timeline for de-escalation or restoration of normal shipping operations.