Jamaica’s ambitious national rebuilding program following the devastating Hurricane Melissa faces significant implementation risks due to structural weaknesses in the state’s project execution capacity, according to a stark assessment from the Independent Fiscal Commission (IFC). The fiscal watchdog’s report, presented to Parliament on Tuesday, indicates that despite Jamaica’s strong fiscal buffers and available financing, the government’s historical pattern of capital underspending threatens to undermine reconstruction efforts.
The October hurricane caused an estimated US$8.8 billion in damages, equivalent to approximately 41% of Jamaica’s GDP, prompting the temporary suspension of fiscal rules and triggering a major reconstruction initiative. However, the IFC’s January assessment reveals concerning execution trends, with central government capital spending between April and September reaching just $19.2 billion—nearly 46% below the original budget of $35.5 billion.
The commission emphasized that the government’s stronger-than-expected budget performance in the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year reflected widespread under-execution of capital projects rather than improved implementation capacity. This pattern of underspending, while supporting near-term fiscal outcomes, masks fundamental weaknesses in the state’s ability to deliver large-scale public investment programs.
Jamaica entered the current fiscal year with robust macroeconomic indicators, including declining public debt, low unemployment, and improved credit ratings. By September 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen to 60.3%, positioning the country to meet its legislated 60% debt target ahead of schedule. However, Hurricane Melissa has dramatically altered this trajectory, with public debt now projected to rise to 68.2% of GDP by fiscal year-end.
The IFC acknowledged that Jamaica’s fiscal buffers and disaster-risk financing arrangements—including access to approximately US$663 million in contingent resources—enabled an immediate response to the catastrophe. International development partners have additionally mobilized up to $6 billion in potential financing to support recovery and reconstruction efforts.
Despite these financial resources, the commission stressed that financing availability is not the primary constraint. Instead, it identified long-standing deficiencies in public investment management, including procurement delays, inadequate project preparation, and limited project-management capacity across government ministries and public bodies. The report specifically cautioned against what it termed “over-ambition in materially executing additional capital projects amid local capacity constraints.”
As Jamaica transitions into the reconstruction phase, the IFC recommended aligning capital budgets more closely with actual delivery capacity while strengthening execution frameworks to ensure rebuilding efforts translate into sustainable economic growth rather than temporary fiscal improvements.