Markets drop as valuations and US jobs, rates spook investors

Global stock markets experienced a downturn on Friday, mirroring Wall Street’s losses as investors grappled with weak US jobs data and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts. The week’s volatility culminated in a negative close, fueled by a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealing that US layoff announcements reached a 22-year high last month. This marked the worst year for layoffs since 2020, when the pandemic severely impacted the labor market. Investors, relying on private data due to the ongoing government shutdown, faced heightened uncertainty about the US economy’s health. While recent private hiring data showed an increase, concerns about the labor market persisted, pressuring the Fed to consider a third consecutive rate cut in December. However, comments from Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed chief Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee, suggested that another rate reduction was not guaranteed. Hammack emphasized the need to address high inflation, calling the current policy ‘barely restrictive.’ Goolsbee expressed unease about making decisions without comprehensive data during the shutdown. Wall Street’s major indexes, particularly tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500, ended the day down, with tech firms bearing the brunt of the sell-off. Asian markets, including Tokyo and Seoul, also declined, while European markets showed mixed results. The recent market rally, driven by AI investments and hopes for rate cuts, has sparked concerns about overvaluation and potential corrections. Pepperstone’s Michael Brown noted the fragility of market sentiment but maintained a bullish outlook, citing robust earnings growth and a resilient economy.