Since the inaugural men’s FIFA World Cup kicked off in 1930, only eight distinct national sides have lifted the sport’s most coveted global trophy. In just days, the 2026 edition will make history as the first expanded tournament to feature a record-breaking 48 competing nations, bringing a brand-new competition format to the world’s biggest sporting event.
Under the restructured rules, the group stage will be split into 12 separate groups of four teams apiece. Twelve seeded teams, including three co-host nations and eight top-ranked sides, have already been distributed across the draw. The tournament’s four highest-ranked seeded teams—Spain, Argentina, France, and England—have each been placed in separate quadrants of the new tournament draw structure, a format adapted from professional tennis competition.
FIFA confirmed that if the top four seeded sides all win their respective groups, they will not face each other until the semi-final stage of the knockout bracket. After the round-robin group play concludes, the top two teams from each group will automatically advance to the expanded 32-team knockout round. They will be joined by the eight highest-ranked third-place finishers from across all groups, creating more pathways for underdog sides to make a deep run than in previous tournaments.
Ahead of the tournament’s opening kickoff, football analysts have ranked all 12 groups from the toughest to easiest draw, and named two early favorites expected to secure automatic knockout qualification from each pool. While pre-tournament favorites are a longstanding tradition, the unpredictable nature of football always leaves room for stunning upsets.
### Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway
Widely labeled this tournament’s “Group of Death,” Group I boasts the highest average FIFA ranking across all 12 pools, making it the most competitive opening stage draw. France enters the tournament as one of the overall title favorites, aiming to reach its third consecutive World Cup final after back-to-back final appearances in 2018 and 2022. Senegal remains one of the most formidable sides on the African continent, bringing depth and experience to the group. Erling Haaland’s Norway is widely viewed as a potential dark horse capable of upsetting the top seeds, while Iraq, which navigated a longer qualification path than most sides, will prove no easy out for any opponent in this tough pool. Analysts name France and Senegal as the early favorites to claim automatic knockout spots.
### Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
With an average global ranking of 26, this group poses a significant challenge for all sides, led by the Netherlands sitting 7th in global rankings. Japan was the first nation to secure qualification for the 2026 tournament, and recently pulled off a major friendly upset over England at Wembley Stadium. Sweden boasts an elite attacking duo of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres, who will test even the sturdiest defenses. Tunisia qualified for the tournament without conceding a single goal during its qualification campaign, and is aiming to reach the knockout round for the first time in its World Cup history. The Netherlands and Japan are picked as the most likely sides to claim automatic qualification.
### Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
Croatia has reached the final and semi-final in its last two World Cup appearances, and is gunning for another deep run in 2026. It will open its tournament with a highly anticipated clash against England, where manager Thomas Tuchel will make his first major tournament debut in charge of the English national side. Veteran manager Carlos Queiroz will lean on his extensive experience to lead Ghana past the group stage, while Panama enters the tournament as the highest-ranked side from Central America. While England and Croatia are the favorites to advance, analysts note that neither side will have an easy path to the knockout round. Analysts pick England and Croatia to take the two automatic spots.
### Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
This pool features two sides ranked in the global top 10, promising a fiercely competitive round-robin. While Brazil is no longer the dominant global force it was for decades, the side led by legendary manager Carlo Ancelotti remains the favorite to top the group. Morocco, the reigning African Cup of Nations champion, is looking to repeat its stunning 2022 World Cup semi-final run, and enters as Brazil’s biggest challenger for the top spot. Scotland and Haiti are widely expected to battle for third place, but both have the talent to pull off unexpected upsets against the higher-ranked sides. Brazil and Morocco are named as the favorites for automatic qualification.
### Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Portugal and Colombia enter as the clear top favorites, but analysts warn against underestimating play-off winners DR Congo and first-time World Cup qualifier Uzbekistan. Legendary Italian defender Fabio Cannavaro leads Uzbekistan in its World Cup debut, with a squad that includes Manchester City rising star Abdukodir Khusanov. Colombia reached its first Copa America final in more than 20 years in 2024, and will challenge Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal for the group’s top spot. Portugal and Colombia are picked to claim the two automatic knockout spots.
### Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay
Spain enters the 2026 World Cup as one of the overall title favorites, fresh off its victory at Euro 2024. The group stage’s marquee matchup will pit Spain against veteran manager Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay, with the two sides widely expected to battle for first place in the pool. Saudi Arabia proved its ability to pull off upsets at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, and is expected to fight Cape Verde for the third place spot that could still earn a knockout berth. Analysts name Spain and Uruguay as the favorites for automatic qualification.
### Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
While this group has the second-lowest average FIFA ranking across the entire tournament, it still promises plenty of competitive drama. Germany enters the tournament in strong form, hungry to advance past the group stage after early exits in its last two World Cup appearances. Ecuador secured second place in South American qualification and boasts Chelsea star Moises Caicedo in its squad, looking to turn heads on the global stage. Ivory Coast comes into the tournament fresh off an African Cup of Nations title and a friendly upset over France, while first-time qualifier Curaçao remains a complete wild card for opposing sides. Germany and Ecuador are named as the most likely to advance automatically.
### Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
Reigning 2022 champion Argentina earned a favorable draw and enters as the overwhelming favorite to top the group. Austria and Algeria are closely matched in global FIFA rankings, and their head-to-head matchup will almost certainly decide which side claims the second automatic qualification spot. While Jordan is making its World Cup debut, it is no pushover: the side finished as 2023 Asian Cup runners-up, scored 32 goals during qualification, and finished undefeated in home matches. Argentina and Austria are picked as the favorites to advance.
### Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czech Republic
This group is ranked as one of the easiest of the tournament, with an average FIFA ranking of 35. Co-host Mexico is looking to capitalize on home-field advantage to secure a top-two finish. South Korea finished undefeated during Asian qualification, and will battle 74-year-old manager Miroslav Koubek’s Czech side for the second automatic spot. South Africa has never advanced past the group stage in World Cup history, but can still qualify for the knockout round as one of the top eight third-place finishers. Mexico and South Korea are named as the favorites for automatic qualification.
### Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
This draw looks like a comfortable path to the knockout round for Belgium, even though its iconic “Golden Generation” of talent has passed. None of Belgium’s opponents in this group have ever advanced past the World Cup group stage, leaving manager Rudi Garcia’s side as the clear favorite to top the pool. Egypt, led by Liverpool star Mohamed Salah, has never won a World Cup match, but holds a strong chance to pick up results against Iran and New Zealand to claim second place. Iran’s pre-tournament preparation has been disrupted by geopolitical instability linked to the conflict between Israel and the United States, leaving its form unpredictable. New Zealand enters as the lowest-ranked side in the group, and faces an uphill battle for qualification. Belgium and Egypt are picked to claim the two automatic spots.
### Group D: United States, Paraguay, Turkey, Australia
Despite having the third-highest average FIFA ranking across all groups, this is considered one of the easier draws, particularly for co-host the United States. The US sits 16th in global rankings, and manager Mauricio Pochettino is counting on star attacker Christian Pulisic to lead the side out of the group. There are no true elite powerhouses in this pool, but play-off qualifier Turkey holds the best chance to join the US in the knockout round. Lower-ranked Paraguay and Australia will both be fighting to claim an upset spot in the round of 32. The United States and Turkey are named as the favorites for automatic qualification.
### Group B: Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland
This group has the lowest average FIFA ranking of the entire tournament at 42, but still promises a tightly contested battle for the top two spots. Switzerland is the highest-ranked side in the pool and has a proven track record of advancing to the knockout round in recent World Cups. Co-host Canada has a disappointing historic World Cup record, but is hoping home advantage under manager Jesse Marsch will deliver a first-ever knockout stage appearance. Bosnia and Herzegovina pulled off a massive play-off upset to eliminate four-time champion Italy, and is targeting an automatic qualification spot, while Asian champion Qatar is also hoping to spring an upset. Switzerland and Canada are picked as the favorites to claim the two automatic knockout spots.