Against a backdrop of soaring global energy costs, intensifying geopolitical friction, persistent inflation, and widening fiscal gaps, the Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) has released its highly anticipated second quarter monetary policy note for fiscal year 2025-2026, laying out a comprehensive snapshot of recent economic performance, key policy interventions to stabilize macroeconomic and financial conditions, and forward-looking projections for the months ahead.
Global and regional economic projections from the International Monetary Fund, published in April 2026, frame the challenging global context in which Haiti’s economy operates. The IMF estimates global growth will hit 3.1% for the full year 2026. The United States is projected to grow by 2%, with inflation holding at 3.3%, unemployment at 4.3%, and benchmark policy rates ranging between 3.50% and 3.75%. The Eurozone faces far slower growth, penciled in at just 0.1%, with 2.6% inflation, 6.2% unemployment, and a 2% deposit facility rate. Across Latin America and the Caribbean, regional growth is projected at 2.2%, with neighboring Dominican Republic outperforming at 4% annual growth, 4.63% inflation, and a 5.25% policy rate.
Domestically, Haiti’s economic landscape remains deeply troubled, the report confirms. Economic activity contracted by 1.1% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, with all three major sectors posting underperformance: the primary sector shrank by 4%, the secondary sector by 2.3%, and the tertiary sector by 0.3%. The ongoing security crisis has driven widespread displacement, with nearly 1.45 million Haitians registered as displaced persons as of February 24, 2026. Between March and June 2026, an estimated 5.83 million Haitians face acute food insecurity. Annual inflation hit 20.6% in March 2026, exacerbated by a government-announced fuel price increase implemented on March 31 of that year.
On the public finance front, BRH data shows the government collected 54.7 billion Gourdes in tax revenue over the quarter, with total available resources reaching 102.8 billion Gourdes. Net treasury bill issuance hit 40.9 billion Gourdes, while recorded budget expenditures totaled 61.3 billion Gourdes. Overall total disbursements reached 113.7 billion Gourdes, leaving a significant overall budget gap. A portion of this deficit was financed via 19.12 billion Gourdes in advances from the BRH. In the external sector, the country recorded $160.83 million in exports against $1.19 billion in imports, resulting in a trade deficit of $1.03 billion for the quarter.
Looking ahead, BRH warns that Haiti’s economic trajectory remains vulnerable to a cascade of overlapping shocks, rooted in both the nation’s ongoing precarious security situation and the potential spillover effects from escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Against a backdrop of global oil market disruptions, the government’s pump price adjustment—while slightly revised downward in early May 2026, after the end of the quarter under review—still risks further stoking inflationary pressures. Higher fuel costs drive up transportation expenses, which flow directly to higher prices for nearly all other consumer goods and services across the economy. Additionally, ongoing volatility in the Middle East threatens to increase Haiti’s total oil import bill, putting additional downward pressure on the country’s already strained foreign exchange market.
In response to deepening shocks and persistent economic uncertainty, BRH has committed to rolling out targeted policy measures to preserve core economic activity, aligned with its institutional mandate. The central bank’s policy priorities will focus on restoring macroeconomic balance and safeguarding the stability of Haiti’s financial system. To support these efforts, the International Monetary Fund’s recent extension of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) through June 2027 will provide critical institutional backing, creating a credible policy framework and ensuring continuity of disciplined macroeconomic management.
Beyond short-term stabilization, BRH has reaffirmed its long-term commitment to revitalizing Haiti’s domestic productive sector through targeted support mechanisms for strategic industries. Key initiatives include a restructuring of banking services to expand access to financial inclusion for residents and businesses in provincial cities, and scaled-up support for Haitian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly those owned and led by women. The Booster PME III program stands as a flagship effort to deliver on this commitment.