The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) is grappling with a widespread demographic shift, as the latest 2024 United Nations World Population Prospects report reveals that 12 out of its 15 member states have fertility rates below the 2.1 children per woman threshold needed to replace an existing population. Total fertility rate (TFR), a key demographic metric that measures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if current birth rates stay consistent, currently spans from 1.36 to 2.66 across the bloc’s member nations. Only three countries in the regional bloc have retained TFRs above the replacement level: Haiti leads with a rate of 2.66, followed by Guyana at 2.41, and Suriname at 2.25. Among the 12 countries falling below the threshold, Belize comes closest to the 2.1 mark with a TFR of 2.01, barely missing the replacement level. At the opposite end of the spectrum, three nations record some of the lowest fertility rates in the hemisphere: Jamaica at 1.36, The Bahamas at 1.37, and Saint Lucia at 1.38. These rates are on par with the low fertility levels seen in major developed economies such as Italy, Japan, and South Korea, where years of sustained low fertility have already triggered profound shifts to national labor markets, public pension systems, and domestic consumer demand patterns. For the remaining CARICOM member states not at either extreme, fertility rates cluster tightly between 1.44 and 1.77 children per woman. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, and Antigua and Barbuda top this middle group with rates within that narrow range. Taken as a whole, the regional bloc’s demographic outlook is clear: just three of its 15 members currently have fertility levels high enough to sustain long-term natural population growth without relying on immigration to offset population decline. The data, drawn from 2023 estimates compiled by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs for the 2024 World Population Prospects report, provides the most up-to-date snapshot of fertility trends across the Caribbean integration bloc.
Antigua and Barbuda Among CARICOM Nations Facing Falling Birth Rates
