KINGSTON, Jamaica — As the Caribbean region transitions from a La Niña to an El Niño climate pattern, agricultural authorities across Jamaica are sounding the alarm for local food producers, calling for urgent proactive planning to adapt to unpredictable, drier and hotter conditions forecast over the coming five months. The Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA), the body tasked with supporting Jamaica’s rural agricultural sector, has launched an advisory campaign urging all island farmers to adjust their operations ahead of the projected unusual weather trends.
Francine Webb, senior officer for plant health and food safety at RADA, outlined that updated projections from Jamaica’s national Meteorological Service confirm the upcoming wet season will bring far less precipitation than historical averages, making water conservation a non-negotiable priority for agricultural producers.
“Data we have received shows that for the April to June window, leading into the second wet season, conditions will be drier than the historical norm, but we can also expect intermittent heavy rain events,” Webb explained in an interview with JIS News. “This mixed pattern means water conservation has to be at the top of every farmer’s to-do list. We have to be ready for any scenario that unfolds.”
Webb broke down the regional rainfall probabilities by parish, comparing projected totals to 30 years of historical climate data. Across western and northern parishes including St Elizabeth, Westmoreland, Hanover, St James, Trelawny, St Ann, and St Mary, there is a 40 to 45 percent chance of rainfall falling below the long-term average. In southern parishes of Manchester, Clarendon, and St Catherine, that probability rises to between 45 and 50 percent. The parishes of Kingston and St Andrew, St Thomas, and Portland face similar odds, with a 45 to 50 percent likelihood of below-average precipitation for the April-June period.
Webb emphasized that the long-term drought watch issued across parts of the island should not be confused with the short-term seasonal rainfall forecast, urging farmers to prepare for all possible conditions regardless of the short-term projections.
Looking ahead to the July to September period, Webb noted that the Meteorological Service projects above-average rainfall for a handful of parishes, most notably central St Thomas. But this expected increase in rain does not eliminate drought risk, she stressed: the same area is also under a long-term drought watch.
“Just because we expect higher rainfall in that period doesn’t mean farmers will have excess water to spare,” Webb added. “With temperatures climbing higher than average across the region, any rainfall we get will be offset by rapid evaporation. That makes water conservation critical even in areas projected to see more rain.”
Naming central St Thomas as one of the most vulnerable areas on the island, Webb repeated that efficient, intentional water use is imperative for all Jamaican farmers as they head into the mixed weather period. By taking proactive steps to store and conserve water now, producers can protect their crops and operations from the worst impacts of shifting climate patterns, RADA says.