PARIS — A groundbreaking study published in The Lancet Planetary Health reveals that plastic’s detrimental impact on human health is poised to escalate dramatically in the coming decades without immediate global intervention. The comprehensive research, conducted by a British-French scientific team, analyzes the entire lifecycle of plastic—from fossil fuel extraction to landfill disposal—documenting its multifaceted health consequences.
The study represents the first global attempt to quantify healthy years of life lost due to plastic-related health impacts, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as a measurement metric. Current projections indicate a disturbing trend: under business-as-usual conditions, plastic-related DALYs would surge from 2.1 million in 2016 to 4.5 million by 2040—more than doubling within a generation.
Lead author Megan Deeney of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine emphasized that these findings “undoubtedly represent a vast underestimate” of plastic’s true health toll, as the study couldn’t account for all potential harm mechanisms, including microplastic contamination and chemical leaching from food packaging.
The research identifies greenhouse gas emissions from plastic production as the most significant health threat, followed closely by air pollution and exposure to toxic chemicals. The investigation traces the journey of a typical plastic water bottle—from its origins in oil and gas extraction through chemical transformation into PET plastic, global transportation, and eventual disposal. Deeney highlighted the notorious “cancer alley” in Louisiana, where over 200 petrochemical plants involved in plastic production concentrate health risks for local communities.
Despite recycling initiatives, the study found that improved waste management alone produces minimal health benefits. The most effective solution involves substantially reducing unnecessary plastic production at its source. This finding comes as international efforts to establish a global plastic pollution treaty faced setbacks in August due to opposition from oil-producing nations.
Deeney concluded that national-level actions remain crucial to addressing this “global public health crisis,” emphasizing that the window for meaningful intervention is closing rapidly as plastic production continues to accelerate worldwide.