A comprehensive post-election study conducted by Grenadian data analyst Justin Pierre has revealed that COVID-19 vaccine mandates served as the decisive factor in the stunning electoral defeat of St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ Unity Labour Party (ULP) on November 27, 2025. Despite pre-election polling that showed 100% confidence in a sixth consecutive term for the ULP, voters delivered a landslide victory to the New Democratic Party (NDP), which captured 14 of 15 parliamentary seats after nearly 25 years in opposition.
Pierre’s research team conducted extensive interviews with 2,402 Vincentians between October 1-30, followed by post-election focus groups with 38 pre-committed voters. The findings uncovered a critical blind spot: vaccine mandate repercussions that weren’t captured in initial surveys. Personal accounts emerged of citizens losing employment, mortgages, and livelihoods due to mandate non-compliance, creating widespread resentment against the incumbent government.
Vincentian journalist Jomo Thomas, who accurately predicted the election outcome months in advance, characterized the vaccine mandate as “the most significant thing in the vastness of the ULP defeat.” Thomas noted that while issues like unemployment, poverty, corruption, and high crime rates existed in the 2020 election when the ULP narrowly retained power, the mandate became the decisive factor that amplified voter dissatisfaction.
The research also identified a dramatic demographic shift, with 38% of the population aged 18-48 showing overwhelming support for the NDP. This youth mobilization, combined with extensive social media engagement totaling over 900,000 minutes of content, created an insurmountable challenge for the ULP. The only constituency the party retained was North Central Windward, represented by former Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves since 1994.
Pierre’s analysis suggests that the combination of vaccine mandate backlash, youth mobilization, and sixth-term fatigue created a perfect storm that ended the ULP’s 24-year governance. The findings highlight how single policy decisions can trigger profound political consequences even when economic and social conditions remain relatively consistent.