A prominent Grenadian data analyst has publicly analyzed his erroneous prediction that Saint Vincent and the Grenadines’ ruling Unity Labour Party (ULP) would secure a sixth consecutive term, attributing the miscalculation to conducting polls too early and failing to account for last-minute campaign dynamics.
Dr. Justin Pierre, a seasoned statistician and labor market consultant, revealed that his pre-election survey of 2,402 citizens conducted October 1-30 showed an 80% voter loyalty rate for ULP, leading his team to be ‘100% confident’ in their victory projection. However, the November 27 election resulted in a seismic shift, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) capturing 14 of 15 constituencies and outperforming ULP by approximately 9,854 votes according to preliminary counts.
Critical factors unaccounted for in the initial survey included the COVID-19 vaccine mandate’s significant impact—a policy that resulted in hundreds of public sector dismissals in November 2021—and an unprecedented late-stage social media explosion. Pierre noted that while October social media consumption favored NDP by 110,100 to 157,000 minutes, this surged to nearly 900,000 minutes consumed from November 15 onward, creating what he described as an ‘insurmountable momentum shift.’
The analyst also cited external campaign assistance from Jamaican specialists and alleged support from Trinidad and Tobago as additional factors that emerged after his survey period. Vincentian journalist and social commentator Jomo Thomas challenged Pierre’s methodology, noting that a purported 2% lead falling within the survey’s 2% margin of error indicated a statistical dead heat rather than a decisive advantage.
Pierre concluded that future predictions should be made within one week of elections rather than thirty days prior, acknowledging that this was his first incorrect forecast after accurately predicting eight previous Caribbean elections.