The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has issued a stark warning about the economic fallout from Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm that ravaged the island late last month. The catastrophic damage is expected to reverse recent economic gains, spike unemployment, and significantly reduce GDP, potentially plunging the nation into a recession in the coming quarters. Dr. Wayne Henry, Director General of the PIOJ, described the short- to medium-term economic outlook as ‘generally negative,’ projecting an 11-13% contraction in the current October-December quarter and an overall decline of 3-6% for fiscal year 2025/26. ‘The impacts of Hurricane Melissa are unprecedented, and the country must brace for a recession,’ Henry stated during the institute’s quarterly press briefing on Tuesday. A recession, typically marked by two or more consecutive quarters of declining GDP, often brings rising unemployment, reduced business investment, and lower consumer spending. This grim forecast follows a period of economic recovery after Hurricane Beryl in 2024, which the PIOJ had previously dismissed as a recession risk. However, the scale of Melissa’s destruction has forced a reassessment. James Stewart, Senior Director in the Economic Planning and Research Division, noted that economic growth is unlikely to return until late 2026, with a downturn expected for the next three to four quarters. The storm’s historic devastation has severely damaged residential and productive assets, wiping out an estimated 41% of Jamaica’s GDP. Key industries such as Agriculture, Tourism, Information and Communication, and Construction are among the hardest hit. Agriculture, in particular, faces severe challenges, as the seven most affected parishes account for 74% of domestic crop production and major livestock operations. Tourism, responsible for 90% of the island’s hotel room stock, has been crippled by temporary closures, reduced capacity, and a US Level 3 Travel Advisory. Preliminary data for October already shows an 18% drop in visitor arrivals. Infrastructure damage, halted capital projects, and curtailed transportation services further exacerbate the economic strain. Henry emphasized that while the projections are dire, they remain fluid and could change with new information. Recovery to pre-hurricane levels is conservatively estimated to take 3-5 years, given the extensive loss of productive assets. The PIOJ, supported by international partners, aims to complete its damage and loss assessment by mid-December. Despite a strong July-September quarter driven by election-related spending, tourism, and sports events, the economic outlook remains bleak. Agriculture had shown remarkable growth of 23.9% earlier in the year, but Melissa’s impact has erased these gains. For the first nine months of 2025, real GDP grew by 2.4%, supported by increases in the Goods Producing and Services Industries. However, the road to recovery will be long and arduous, requiring swift and effective humanitarian and economic recovery initiatives.