As of 5 p.m. AST, Tropical Storm Jerry continues to follow a forecast track that keeps its center passing north of the Leeward Islands, significantly reducing the threat to the region. The probability of sustained tropical-storm-force winds has decreased to 8% for Antigua and 31% for Barbuda, while the chance of hurricane-force winds is now near 0% for both islands. Other nearby islands face even lower risks. Jerry is currently located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 54.7 West, moving west-northwest at 23 mph (37 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through Thursday, with a slower northwestward movement beginning Thursday night, followed by a northward shift by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h), with gradual strengthening forecasted, potentially elevating Jerry to hurricane status later this week or weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, with a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches). Hazards include possible tropical storm conditions in the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches (with localized maxima up to 6 inches) across the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands, posing a risk of flash flooding. Swells generated by Jerry are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents in the Leeward and Windward Islands by Thursday, spreading westward to the Greater Antilles by Friday. Residents are advised to monitor updates from local weather offices and heed safety warnings.
Possibility of storm force winds from Jerry decreases for both Antigua and Barbuda
