标签： Jamaica

PARIS, France (AFP) — Just hours after a fragile truce between the United States and Iran was meant to reopen one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained Wednesday, offering little immediate relief to global energy markets grappling with months of disrupted trade.

Only three vessels — all bulk carrier cargo ships — had either completed or were nearing completion of their transits of the 21-mile waterway by Wednesday afternoon, according to real-time tracking data from global maritime intelligence service MarineTraffic. The count only accounts for vessels that kept their navigation transponders active, leaving open the possibility that additional unreported crossings occurred with signals turned off.

The first two crossings were completed early Wednesday, mere hours after the ceasefire agreement was made public. The Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach, which departed the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas at 05:28 UTC, crossed the strait at 06:59 UTC, while Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth completed its passage at 08:44 UTC. A third vessel, the Chinese-owned, Botswana-flagged Hai Long 1 — also departing from Iran — was approaching the end of its transit by mid-afternoon Wednesday.

Notably, the NJ Earth had already crossed into the Gulf of Oman between Monday and Tuesday before returning through the strait again on Wednesday. Ana Subasic, an analyst with commodities data firm Kpler — which owns MarineTraffic — told AFP that this single transit is an encouraging early signal, but it remains too early to confirm whether it marks the start of a full, ceasefire-driven reopening of the waterway, or merely a one-off exception approved by Iranian authorities before the truce took effect.

Both the NJ Earth and Daytona Beach used the Iran-approved transit corridor near Larak Island, the only route most vessels have been allowed to use for the past three weeks amid Iran’s access restrictions. While the Daytona Beach listed the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah port as its destination on its transponder, AFP was unable to immediately confirm the NJ Earth’s final destination. By 16:00 GMT Wednesday, several additional cargo vessels were observed heading toward the same approved corridor for transit.

The slow resumption of activity comes as shipping industry reports confirm that hundreds of vessels remain stuck in the Gulf region. Shipping industry publication Lloyd’s List reported Wednesday that some shipowners and charterers have begun preparations to move the hundreds of vessels stranded since restrictions took effect, with the outlet estimating that roughly 800 ships are currently held in the Gulf.

Iran implemented the severe restrictions on access to the strait in late February as a retaliatory measure following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian assets in the region. Data from Kpler shows that between March 1 and April 7, just 307 commodity-carrying vessels completed crossings of the strait — a 95% drop from pre-restriction traffic levels.

The strait carries outsized importance for global energy security: in peacetime, roughly 20% of the world’s total daily crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the waterway, making even minor disruptions to traffic enough to shift global energy prices and threaten supply chains worldwide.

A sustained surge in global crude oil prices, driven by regional disruption in the Middle East’s Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a cumulative $21 to $22.50 increase in fuel prices at Jamaica’s state-owned sole refinery Petrojam over just five weeks, pushing industry leaders and top business figures to pressure the Jamaican government for an immediate cut to the special consumption tax (SCT) on petroleum products.

Data from Petrojam’s April 1 pricing breakdown shows that for a gallon of 87 octane gasoline priced at $172.3828, SCT charges account for more than 31 percent of the final pump price, with $37.7761 in base SCT and an additional $15.6712 in ad valorem SCT applied to the ex-refinery base price of $118.9355. This disproportionate tax burden has drawn sharp criticism from Christopher Berry, Executive Chairman of leading investment firm Mayberry Group, who argues that skyrocketing energy costs are squeezing household budgets and eroding competitiveness across every sector of the Jamaican economy.

Berry made the call during an April 2 virtual investor briefing hosted by Mayberry Investments, noting that the heavy SCT levy ripples through daily life for Jamaican consumers, appearing in higher electricity bills as well as direct fuel costs, with low- and middle-income families unable to absorb the extra expenses. His appeal comes as Jamaica navigates its second major external economic shock in just six months: after Hurricane Melissa caused extensive damage to western Jamaica and disrupted the key winter tourism season, the Middle East supply disruption has sent shockwaves through global commodity markets.

Beyond transportation fuel, the spike in oil derivatives has driven up costs for critical agricultural inputs, most notably fertilizer, where a third of global seaborne fertilizer trade has been cut off by the crisis. For the manufacturing sector, higher fuel prices deliver a dual blow: rising liquified natural gas (LNG) and electricity costs push up production expenses, while higher diesel prices increase the cost of transporting finished goods to market. Richard Pandohie, CEO of Seprod Limited, one of Jamaica’s largest manufacturing and distribution conglomerates, warned in a recent Television Jamaica interview that while overall food availability will remain stable, widespread affordability will become a major challenge as price hikes filter through to grocery shelves.

As of the most recent Monday trading session, global crude benchmarks have seen dramatic double-digit gains: Brent crude has risen 82 percent to $113.19, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has climbed 99 percent to $115.52. The unusual inversion of WTI trading above Brent, a reversal of the typical market dynamic where Brent carries a premium due to water transportation costs, signals that markets are pricing in persistent supply delivery risks. Other emerging economies across the Indo-Pacific have already moved to address the energy crisis: India and Vietnam have cut fuel taxes and excise duties on petrol and diesel to cushion consumer impact, while Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have implemented emergency measures including reduced business operating hours and national holidays to conserve energy.

Jamaica has a recent precedent for targeted intervention during energy price shocks: in 2022, then Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke rolled out a $2 billion targeted support package for vulnerable households, alongside a 20 percent electricity subsidy for Jamaica Public Service (JPS) customers using up to 200 kilowatt-hours per month between April and July. Berry argues that in the current crisis, cutting SCT is a necessary step to prevent broad economic damage, even with the near-term impact on government revenue. “Although the higher SCT on increased fuel prices offsets some of the government’s negative cash flows, the damage to the overall economy far outweighs that revenue gain,” Berry said, urging policymakers to immediately reduce fuel taxes to avoid long-term harm.

Under Petrojam’s current pricing framework, the refinery adjusts product prices every Wednesday to align with changes in the US Gulf Coast reference price, which has risen 67 percent between February 27 and March 27 to hit $3.043 per gallon. A built-in cap limits weekly price movements to a maximum $4.50 increase or decrease, meaning the refinery must absorb excess costs when global prices spike sharply. Up to the week of March 27, Minister of Information and Technology Daryl Vaz confirmed that Petrojam has already absorbed $795 million (US$5 million) in unabsorbed price increases, and warned that the government may need to draw on the consolidated fund or net international reserves (NIR) to cover these costs. The refinery already posted a US$28.66 million net loss in the 2025 fiscal year ending March, and is projected to record a US$9.63 million net loss for the 2027 fiscal year.

Vaz told Nationwide News Network that he has already briefed Finance Minister Fayval Williams on the situation, and that the government’s top priority is minimizing disruption to the broader economy. On the supply side, Vaz emphasized that while Petrojam sources most crude from Brazil, Ecuador, and Colombia, and purchases finished products on the open market primarily from the United States, the refinery holds four weeks of stock on hand and has secured written commitments from all suppliers guaranteeing no disruptions to deliveries, eliminating near-term supply shortage risks.

Despite the clear benefits for consumers, a cut to SCT carries significant fiscal risks for the Jamaican government. Fuel SCT collected through Petrojam is a major revenue stream for the government, generating $45.3 billion in annual revenue. For the 2025 fiscal year, Petrojam collected US$225.82 million in SCT, with projections of US$247.49 million for 2026 and US$284.63 million for 2027, based on an average crude acquisition price of US$80.19 per barrel. The government is already projecting a $134.6 billion deficit for the 2026 fiscal year and a $190.7 billion deficit for the current fiscal year, with Williams’ 2027 budget including $18.04 billion in new taxes for the upcoming fiscal year and an additional $15.6 billion for the following year, a reflection of lingering fiscal damage from Hurricane Melissa.

For ordinary Jamaicans, the pressure is already mounting: JPS customers have already seen higher fuel surcharges added to their monthly electricity bills, while businesses are preparing to implement a higher minimum wage starting June 1. Combined with broader economic slowdown pressures, the latest fuel price hikes are set to push household and business costs even higher in the coming months, leaving the Jamaican government caught between the urgent need to relieve consumer strain and the risk of exacerbating already wide fiscal deficits.

The first quarter of 202X closed with positive headline returns for Jamaica’s main stock market, but beneath the surface, the rally is losing foundational strength as upward momentum becomes concentrated in an increasingly narrow group of assets and investor risk appetite pulls back.

For the three-month period ending March 31, the Main Market index logged an overall 8.83% gain, built on strong upward movement from the earlier months of the quarter. That overall gain, however, obscured a softening trend that intensified through March: the benchmark slipped 0.18% during the final month of the quarter, erasing a portion of earlier gains and signaling the broad rally was running out of steam by quarter-end.

Market breadth shifted sharply negative in March, underscoring the uneven nature of recent gains. Only 14 stocks posted advances, while 38 closed lower, a marked deterioration from February’s 21 gains and 32 declines. The trend confirms that market participation has steadily weakened as the quarter progressed, meaning a shrinking share of listed companies are contributing to the index’s overall growth.

Put plainly, the headline index has moved higher, but that growth is being driven by fewer and fewer names. This narrow leadership pattern was clearly visible in the performance of the market’s top outperformers: Kingston Properties and Sagicor Real Estate X Fund notched robust double-digit gains that propped up the broader index, while the majority of other listed assets lagged far behind.

At the same time, several widely held large-cap stocks, including Caribbean Producers, Mayberry Jamaican Equities and JMMB Group, all trended downward, highlighting how fractured investor confidence is across different segments of the market. For the full quarter, the gap between top and bottom performers widened dramatically: TransJamaican Highway and Kingston Properties led the market with gains of roughly 50%, while dozens of other stocks posted double-digit losses.

This growing divergence between a small cohort of strong winners and a much larger group of declining stocks signals a clear shift in investor strategy: the market is becoming far more selective, with market participants concentrating capital in a handful of targeted opportunities rather than spreading investments broadly across the benchmark.

Trading data further reinforces the trend of rising investor caution. In March, the total number of transactions climbed 17% year-over-year to 27,101, but total trading volume plummeted 70% to 321.84 million units. The aggregate value of all trades also fell sharply, dropping to $4.11 billion from $24.51 billion in the same period a year earlier.

This data points to a clear shift in investor positioning: while more trades are being executed, investors are committing far less capital per transaction, a clear signal of growing risk aversion and a shift toward shorter-term trading strategies. The pattern also suggests many market participants are testing the waters with small, tactical positions rather than making large, long-term commitments to equities.

The junior market segment mirrored the main market’s weak underlying performance, even with more muted overall movement. The junior market index gained 1.04% in March and posted a meager 0.21% gain for the full first quarter, showing almost no net upward momentum for the period. Within the segment, performance was similarly uneven: Jetcon Corporation and Future Energy Source Company posted gains, while Kintyre Holdings and IronRock Insurance closed lower, echoing the main market’s pattern of narrow, uneven growth.

Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of a stock market that still shows positive headline gains, but lacks broad underlying support. This dynamic matters for future performance: narrow rallies driven by a small handful of stocks and declining average trade values are notoriously difficult to sustain over the long term, particularly if broader investor confidence fails to improve in coming months. If the current trend of weakening breadth and declining capital commitment continues, the market will likely struggle to build on its strong early-quarter gains, even if benchmark headline indices remain in positive territory.