On Thursday, a group of leading climate scientists issued a stark public challenge to global soccer governing body FIFA, warning that climate change has drastically amplified extreme heat risks for the upcoming 2026 men’s FIFA World Cup set to be co-hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada. New analysis from climate research network World Weather Attribution (WWA) projects that nearly one quarter of all 2026 tournament matches could be contested under dangerously hot conditions, a sharp increase from the 1994 U.S.-hosted World Cup held on the same continent.
As heat-related health concerns have grown, FIFA has already pre-emptively introduced mandatory cooling breaks during each half of matches scheduled to run from June 11 to July 19 across 16 host stadiums. But WWA’s assessment argues that existing mitigation measures may not be sufficient to address the heightened risks driven by human-caused global warming.
“Players and fans face a much higher risk of gruelling heat and humidity at the 2026 World Cup compared to the 1994 tournament on the same continent,” the network said in its official statement.
WWA’s statistical analysis estimates that 26 out of the tournament’s 104 total matches could see Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) readings hit at least 26°C. WBGT is a widely used metric that accounts for combined impacts of heat, humidity, solar radiation and wind to gauge how well the human body can cool itself, making it the gold standard for assessing heat-related health risk. Global footballers’ union FIFPRO has formally recommended mandatory cooling breaks once WBGT hits 26°C, as heat strain becomes a measurable safety threat for competing athletes at this threshold.
Of the 26 high-risk matches identified, 17 will be held in venues with built-in cooling infrastructure that can reduce hazard levels for both players and spectators. The remaining nine high-risk matches are set for stadiums without temperature control systems. By comparison, WWA projects that only 21 matches would have crossed the 26°C WBGT threshold during the 1994 World Cup, underscoring how far heat risk has risen in three decades amid rising global average temperatures.
The most alarming finding from the analysis centers on the most extreme heat category: five 2026 matches are projected to hit 28°C WBGT or higher. FIFPRO guidelines state that matches should be delayed or rescheduled to cooler times of day when WBGT reaches this threshold, as heat poses severe health risks to all people in attendance. This represents a near doubling of extreme heat risk compared to 1994.
WWA co-founder Friederike Otto, who also serves as a climate science professor at Imperial College London, emphasized that the danger extends far beyond on-pitch athletes. “It’s dangerous for players, but of course there are also the fans who might gather outdoors and they are at even more risk because they will not be taken care of by a lot of medical doctors,” Otto explained.
Only three of the 16 2026 host stadiums — located in Dallas, Houston and Atlanta — are equipped with full air conditioning systems. According to WWA’s projections, more than a third of matches with a 10% chance of exceeding 26°C WBGT will be held in these uncooled venues.
Even the tournament’s showpiece final, scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, is not immune to risk. WWA calculates the final has a one-in-eight chance of hitting 26°C WBGT, and a 2.7% risk of crossing the 28°C cancellation threshold. “That the World Cup Final itself — one of the biggest sporting occasions on the planet — faces a non-insignificant risk of being played in ‘cancellation-level’ heat should be a wake-up call for FIFA and fans,” Otto said.
The warning has already drawn high-profile backing from senior international climate officials. Simon Stiell, executive secretary of United Nations Climate Change, shared the assessment on social media and amplified its core message. “The risk of dangerous heat has doubled” since 1994, which will put “players and fans at risk”, he said. Stiell added: “We must move faster to protect the game we love and everyone who watches it. That means doubling down on the decisive shift to clean energy.”
When contacted by Agence France-Presse for comment on the new analysis, FIFA highlighted the suite of preventive measures it has already put in place to address heat risks for the 2026 tournament. Among the safeguards outlined, FIFA noted that it “will continue to monitor conditions in real time, integrating Wet Bulb Globe Temperature and Heat Index surveillance, and stands ready to apply established contingency protocols should extreme weather events occur.”
