BRIDGETOWN, Barbados – The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has issued a stark warning for the region, forecasting an escalation of severe weather phenomena and persistent drought conditions linked to unusually warm waters in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean. According to the latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, this anomalous oceanic heat is set to trigger significant climatic disruptions beginning as early as April. Southern Belize, the Guianas, the Greater Antilles, and the mountainous zones of the Lesser Antilles are identified as areas of particular concern for intense weather activity. The forecast period encompasses the tail end of the dry season, which peaks in March, and the subsequent transition into the region’s heat season. Beyond severe storms, the continued warmth elevates the potential for severe flooding, flash floods, and cascading environmental hazards from April or May onward. Concurrently, short dry spells are predicted to peak in frequency, especially impacting the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao) and the Lesser Antilles. Furthermore, episodes of significant heat discomfort are anticipated to emerge by March in inland areas of Belize, the Guianas, and Trinidad, spreading to other parts of the Caribbean by April and becoming more widespread in May. Critically, CariCOF emphasizes that projected rainfall will be insufficient to alleviate long-term drought conditions. The ABC Islands, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Windward Islands are specifically noted, with Grenada facing an imminent long-term drought by the end of May. A status update as of January 1st detailed that moderate short-term drought has already developed in eastern Guadeloupe, St. Croix, St. Kitts, St. Lucia, Sint Maarten/St-Martin, St. Vincent, far southeast Suriname, and Aruba. The prognosis for the end of May also indicates that long-term drought is evolving in the ABC islands, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Vincent, with potential development or continuation in northern Dominican Republic, Saint Martin, and St. Barts.