A comprehensive seismic vulnerability assessment conducted by engineering experts has revealed that Santiago de los Caballeros, a Dominican city with over one million residents, remains critically unprepared for a major earthquake exceeding magnitude 7. The study projects devastating consequences including massive structural failures, substantial casualties, and severe economic repercussions should such a seismic event occur.
According to the detailed analysis, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake could result in approximately 2,600 fatalities, over 97,000 injuries, and the complete collapse or necessary demolition of at least 6,200 residential and commercial structures. The projected material damages are estimated to surpass US$10 billion. The report further identifies critical emergency response limitations, including inadequate cemetery capacity, insufficient forensic pathology resources, compromised access to potable water, and major communication system failures.
The engineering team, led by former CODIA Northern Regional president Ervin Vargas along with colleagues Luis Peña, Erick Mercedes, Arcadio Rodríguez, and Ashley Morales, emphasizes the city’s current inability to effectively manage a disaster of this scale. The experts urgently call for comprehensive disaster preparedness initiatives and the implementation of rapid-response mechanisms to mitigate potential human and material losses.
While preliminary work has begun to catalog available resources from both public and private institutions—including personnel, equipment, and facilities—the commission stresses that successful implementation of a national preparedness plan requires substantial funding from the central government. The engineers advocate for adopting earthquake preparedness as a permanent state policy, particularly given the region’s historical susceptibility to destructive seismic activity, including past earthquakes that devastated areas of La Vega province.