BASSETERRE, St Kitts – Climate scientists are issuing urgent warnings about the Caribbean’s upcoming dry season, projecting unprecedented heat stress that will severely test the region’s infrastructure and population. Dr. Cedric Van Meerbeeck, a prominent climatologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, presented a sobering assessment during the 2025 Dry Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum, indicating that the period from December 2025 through May 2026 will create substantial challenges across multiple sectors.
The forecast indicates that the traditional dry season will be characterized by excessive heat with limited cooling periods, creating conditions that will significantly impact agricultural productivity, public health systems, and tourism operations. The most critical period is expected during April and May 2026, when temperatures are projected to reach their peak intensity.
A significant complicating factor involves Sahara dust patterns, which scientists cannot yet accurately predict. This atmospheric dust absorbs moisture and creates stable inversion layers that suppress rainfall, potentially exacerbating drought conditions throughout the region. Particular concern exists for the Windward Islands, including Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, where drought-like conditions are anticipated.
The health implications are particularly alarming, with projections indicating increased hospital visits due to heat-related illnesses, water-borne diseases, and respiratory conditions. The absence of nighttime cooling will prevent natural temperature recovery, leading to cumulative physical fatigue and heightened vulnerability among populations with pre-existing health conditions.
While December 2025 through February 2026 may offer some respite with relatively comfortable temperatures, this period will still be warmer than historical averages. The transition into April and May will feature rapid warming trends, making heat waves increasingly probable. Vulnerable populations and livestock will face escalating risks as the season progresses, with heat stress episodes expected to become more frequent and intense toward the season’s conclusion.